At Allinq Digital, we focus on Smart Asset Management. By continuously analyzing data on assets in terms of maintenance, energy, and quality, we let data work for us, and it really works. Especially when we combine that data with domain expertise. We wondered during a weekly meeting if we could apply this approach to our Euro pool as well.

That’s how the idea was born: let’s do it! (Spoiler: predicting the Netherlands to win every match 3-0 probably won’t help you win your office pool 😊.) In this blog, we’ll apply our data expertise to a Euro pool. Let’s see what the data tells us about predicting matches, top scorers, the tournament winner, and yellow and red cards. Use these insights to your advantage!

The most points in a Euro pool are earned by accurately predicting match outcomes. Our first tip: look at the most common results in previous European Championships and World Cups:

⚽ For wins/losses: 1-0, 2-1, and 2-0 are the most common results for wins and losses.

⚽ For draws: it’s wise to predict 1-1 – this result occurs 14.9% of the time. In the last World Cup, only two matches ended in a 0-0 draw, so it’s less advisable to predict this outcome.

In some pools, you can select multiple top scorers. Here are a few simple but effective tips:

⚽ Look at the top scorer for each Euro team and choose teams you think will go far in the tournament.

⚽ Check who takes penalties within a team.

⚽ Assess the relative difficulty of the Euro group stage. Do you expect a top team like France to score many goals against the Netherlands, Poland, and Austria? Then it makes sense to select Mbappé as a top scorer.

Bonus Tip: The top scorer of the Euro qualifiers was Romelu Lukaku. As Belgium’s star, he scored 14 goals during qualification. Belgium’s group is relatively easy – we recommend definitely including Lukaku as a top scorer.

In Holland, we all hope for it, but let’s be honest. The chances of the Netherlands winning the Euros aren’t that high. According to the FIFA rankings, the Netherlands is below France, Belgium, England, and Portugal. Germany has historically won the Euros most often and has the home advantage this year. France is at the top of the FIFA rankings and has a squad to drool over.

Our tip: Check the favorites with the bookmakers and assess the strength of the opponents. If you see that a top team faces relatively few strong opponents on the way to the final, it’s wise to pick that team as the winner.

In the last Euro, we noticed significant trends in yellow and red cards compared to previous tournaments:

⚽ Yellow cards: In 2012 and 2016, the average number of yellow cards per match was 4, while in Euro 2020, it was 3.

⚽ Red cards: Conversely, the number of red cards increased. In both the 2012 and 2016 Euros, 3 red cards were issued throughout the tournament, whereas in 2021, there were 6.

Last but not least, a Euro pool is of course for fun, and a shot hitting the post can determine the fate of a Euro. So don’t forget to follow your intuition. Go Holland!